Pesquisa
Plataforma de Apoio a Gestão Estratégica - PAGE/UCB
Projeto: Analysis of tobacco tax reforms and effects of the illicit market in Brazil
| Coordenador(a): | JOSE ANGELO COSTA DO AMOR DIVINO  |
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| Vigência: | 01/01/2020 a 31/12/2020 | ||||||||
| Situação: | Inativo | ||||||||
| Programa/Curso: | Economia de Empresas - Stricto Sensu | ||||||||
| Escola: | {nme_escola} | ||||||||
| Agência: | University of Illinois at Chicago | ||||||||
| Edital: | Convênio University Of Illinois at Chicago - UIC x UCB | ||||||||
| Chamada | Convênio University Of Illinois at Chicago - UIC x UCB | ||||||||
| Resumo: The research component will simulate cigarette tax reforms to evaluate the impact on government revenues and consumption. The analysis will extend our previous research (UCB and UIC 2019) considering alternative tax structures, volume of production and cost data, as well as the illicit market of cigarettes. The dissemination component of the project will translate the research findings into a research report and a policy brief for policy makers as well as for other stakeholders. The dissemination strategy will use multiple communication channels including presentations of the research, local and national media outlets, and UCB’s social networks. We will analyze the effects of a uniform tax increase that raises cigarette prices in all Federal States and a harmonization of tax rates across States, which is currently under discussion in the Brazilian Congress. We will build on our previous research and extend it combining microdata from the PNAD 2008 and the PNS 2013 with data on cigarette prices and production costs. Combining production costs, minimum price (in 2013), taxation, and officially registered cigarette prices data, we will estimate the illegal cigarette market. This will be used as an input in the estimation of how tax increases affect prices in the illicit market. The simulation of cigarette consumption and associated tax revenues at national and subnational levels under different tax regimes will use alternative data sets. Cigarette consumption patterns per year from 2008 to 2018 by Federal State will be obtained from Vigitel. Current and past cigarette tax structure will come from the Brazilian Ministry of Economy. The extension of the illicit cigarette market will be estimated from PNAD 2008, PNS 2013, and a combination of data on tax, production and costs from the Ministry of Economy and Federal Revenue Service. Based on the overall findings, we will make policy recommendations. |
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Equipe:
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Orçamento Aprovado:
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